China's new-energy vehicles reach 64.3% of October sales as exports offset weaker demand

New-energy vehicles accounted for 64.3 percent of China's new vehicle sales in October, but the rising share should not be confused with a uniformly strong domestic car market. Industry figures released on November 11 put total vehicle sales at 3.016 million, up 2 percent from September but down 9.2 percent from a year earlier. New-energy vehicle sales reached 1.94 million, up 13.1 percent year on year, with exports providing an important part of the support.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' category includes battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles. It is not a count of battery-only cars, and the manufacturer's sales total includes exports and commercial vehicles. Its 64.3 percent share is therefore not interchangeable with a domestic passenger-car retail penetration measure. Over January-October, new-energy vehicles represented 54.8 percent of all new vehicle sales, below October's single-month share.

Exports support the headline result

New-energy vehicle exports rose about 140 percent to 606,000 units in October. They made up more than half of China's vehicle exports for a fifth consecutive month. Total vehicle exports rose 60.2 percent to 1.066 million. Over the first ten months, new-energy vehicle exports reached 4.61 million, already above the 2.615 million shipped in all of 2025. Domestic new-energy vehicle sales, by contrast, were 1.334 million in October, down about 9 percent year on year.

The transition also extends beyond passenger cars. New-energy vehicles accounted for 51.9 percent of domestic commercial vehicle sales in October, with domestic sales in that category up 36 percent to 112,000. Among new-energy passenger cars, models priced at 100,000-150,000 yuan formed the largest sales bracket over ten months, with almost 3.14 million sold. These figures describe different segments and periods, so they should not be added together as though they were separate national totals.

A future rebate change adds another consideration

China has announced that the value-added-tax export rebate for new-energy vehicles will fall from 13 percent to 9 percent on April 1, 2027. That is a future cost change, not a reduction already applied to October's shipments. Export growth, supply-chain strength and the move towards electrification provide opportunities, but domestic demand, overseas market access and manufacturers' margins remain separate tests of the industry's health.