Opposition challenges net-zero modelling as climate summit begins

The federal opposition has attacked the government's net-zero modelling as ministers promote Australia's climate policies at COP31. Its criticism centres on assumptions behind projections for fossil-fuel production and the growth of newer export industries.

Treasury modelling projects coal production falling by 47% and liquefied natural gas output by 27% by 2035. It also projects green commodity exports, including green iron and critical minerals, overtaking fossil-fuel exports by 2032. These are modelled outcomes, not confirmed closures or production cuts already under way.

Opposition foreign affairs spokesman Ted O'Brien called the modelling flawed and argued it did not reflect changed energy-market conditions or other forecasts. He said the government should give greater priority to domestic energy costs. Those statements are political criticism rather than an independent determination that the modelling is invalid.

Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson has said no modelling exercise predicts the future. The department was reported as not revising its forecasts. The dispute highlights the difference between examining a possible transition pathway and guaranteeing what companies or international markets will do.

The debate comes as the prime minister and climate change minister attend the summit in Türkiye. Alongside emissions targets, the political argument includes household power bills, export income and Australia's continuing role as a major supplier of fossil fuels.