Cancer charity projects England will miss treatment target by nearly 10,000 patients
England is at risk of falling short of its interim cancer-treatment target by nearly 10,000 patients, according to an analysis by Radiotherapy UK. The charity's projection concerns the goal of treating 80% of patients within 62 days of an urgent referral or consultant upgrade by March 2027. It is a calculation based on current performance and assumed patient volumes, not a count of deaths or a certainty about the final March result.
Official figures put September performance at 70.7%, down from 71.9% in August. Radiotherapy UK calculates that around 24,400 patients a month would need treatment within the deadline to reach 80%, compared with roughly 21,500 currently. Its more precise estimate is 2,850 additional timely treatments each month and a cumulative gap of 9,490 patients if volumes remain consistent. The rounded monthly totals should not be used to replace the charity's underlying calculation.
The analysis also shows uneven performance between cancers and regions. Timely treatment reached 70.1% for prostate cancer and 68.8% for breast cancer, compared with 60.9% for lung cancer,60% for gynaecological cancers and 56.5% for head and neck cancers. The Midlands recorded 66.6%, against 77.3% in London. These differences concern the specified treatment measure, not a direct comparison of survival rates.
Radiotherapy UK chair and oncologist Professor Pat Price blamed inadequate staff, equipment and leadership, warning that delays could cost lives. Professor Mark Lawler of Queen's University Belfast argued that accountability and sustained attention were needed, rather than relying on staff goodwill. Their warnings are expert assessments of the risks and causes, not evidence that every delay has the same outcome for every patient.
Separate Cancer Research UK analysis found that, over the previous year,55.4% of people eventually diagnosed with cancer received that diagnosis within 28 days of urgent referral, while 79.1% of those given the all-clear received it within the same period. The faster diagnostic standard's overall target is 80%. The charity said urgent referrals in England had risen around 20% over four years and that capacity was not keeping pace with demand, despite welcome investment in diagnostic equipment. Naser Turabi, the charity's health-policy and evidence director, said progress remained insufficient for the roughly 6% of referred people who eventually receive a cancer diagnosis.
Dr Hilary Williams of the Royal College of Physicians said earlier diagnosis helps only if treatment can follow promptly. She called for enough imaging, endoscopy, pathology and specialist staff, together with capacity in surgery, radiotherapy and drug treatment, so that faster diagnosis does not simply move the bottleneck. Royal College of Radiologists president Dr Stephen Harden warned of shortages of clinical radiologists and oncologists and said recruitment freezes for those doctors had doubled over the previous year.
The Department of Health and Social Care said all three cancer standards were better than a year earlier. It said around 290,000 more people over the past year had received a diagnosis on time or had cancer ruled out compared with the year before the election. The department acknowledged that more remained to be done and said its national cancer plan would improve earlier diagnosis and faster treatment. That response does not remove the gap to the March target, but it is important context alongside the charities' criticism.