Cold-health alerts to begin in northern England after a brief milder spell

A short easing of the cold will be followed by another period of health alerts in parts of England. UK Health Security Agency cold-health alerts are due to run from 21:00 GMT on Sunday,15 November, until 09:00 GMT on Thursday,19 November, for north-east England, north-west England and Yorkshire and the Humber. These are regional health alerts, not a statement that the whole United Kingdom faces identical conditions.

Saturday brought the lowest temperature of the autumn so far, with minus 7.2 C recorded at South Newington in Oxfordshire. Most areas are expected to begin Sunday between 2 C and 6 C, although central and eastern England could still approach freezing in the coldest spots. Milder air is arriving with weather systems from the west, so the relative improvement in temperature does not mean a dry or settled day.

Rain is expected to spread across much of the country on Sunday. Early heavier outbreaks are forecast for Scotland, Northern Ireland, south-west England and Wales, becoming more widespread around midday. Parts of Wales and southern England could see hail, lightning and thundery downpours. Heavy bursts, gusty winds and fallen leaves blocking drains could cause local disruption and surface flooding. Snow is possible on Scottish mountains, rather than being forecast everywhere at low levels.

As the low-pressure system moves east on Monday, rain and wind should ease for a time, but colder northern air will return with frost and fog. Afternoon temperatures of about 5 C to 8 C are forecast for much of the UK, with eastern coastal winds making it feel colder. The far south-west may reach 12 C before the next Atlantic front arrives. Further rain and strong winds are expected on Monday night, with western coastal gales possible.

The incoming wet weather could begin as sleet or snow on higher ground in Snowdonia, the Pennines and the Highlands, while lower areas remain too mild for wintry precipitation. The rest of the week is expected to alternate between milder and colder spells. The forecast is therefore about changing conditions over several days, not a continuous nationwide freeze; the stated alert times use GMT, the local UK time in November.