Hong Kong lifts 2026 growth forecast to 4.8% after strong third quarter

Hong Kong has raised its forecast for real economic growth in 2026 to 4.8%, from a previous range of 3.5% to 4.5%. The government announced the revision on 13 November after third-quarter GDP rose 5.2% from a year earlier, compared with 4.2% in the preceding quarter.

Growth for the first nine months reached 5.1%, the fastest pace in five years. Real goods exports increased 30.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, while services exports grew 4.3%. Officials said trade, investment and consumption all continued to expand.

Government economist Irina Fan pointed to global AI investment and related trade as support for activity, and said early fourth-quarter data suggested continuing momentum. She said domestic demand should remain resilient and the labour market had stayed broadly stable, with employment earnings rising from a year earlier. These are the government's assessments and expectations rather than a guarantee of the final annual outcome.

The government also lowered its 2026 underlying consumer-price inflation forecast to 1.9% from 2.5%, saying price pressures outside the delayed effect of earlier oil-price increases were expected to remain contained.

Fan said external uncertainty still required close monitoring, including geopolitical tensions, US monetary policy and trade-protection measures. The 4.8% figure remains a forecast for the full year, distinct from the already reported 5.2% quarterly and 5.1% nine-month growth rates.