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India October retail inflation rises to 6.09 percent, with food inflation at 8.94 percent

2026-11-15

Illustrative fruit and vegetables, not a survey of Indian prices or a photograph of the CPI release.

India's annual retail inflation rose to a provisional 6.09 percent in October 2026 from a final 5.54 percent in September, the National Statistics Office said on 12 November. Food inflation increased to a provisional 8.94 percent from 7.74 percent. The official release uses the Consumer Price Index with 2024 as its base year and measures October prices against October 2025.

Rural consumer inflation was 6.63 percent and urban inflation 5.41 percent. Rural food inflation was 9.09 percent, against 8.68 percent in urban areas. These are index averages for different population groups, not a statement that every household's costs rose by the same percentage or that prices increased 6.09 percent in a single month.

Food pressure broadens, while rate forecasts remain forecasts

The headline rate moved above the Reserve Bank of India's 6 percent upper tolerance limit for the first time in two years. Eleven of twelve broad categories showed firming inflation. Reported annual increases included 10.06 percent in restaurant and accommodation services, 8.51 percent in food and beverages, and 10.14 percent in personal care and miscellaneous goods and services.

Barclays economists Aastha Gudwani and Amruta Ghare noted that October food-price momentum was nevertheless the slowest since June, at about 0.9 percent month-on-month. They said increases in vegetable and pulse prices slowed toward month-end as onion and tomato prices stabilised. A slower monthly increase can coexist with a higher annual inflation rate because the comparison periods differ.

The next monetary-policy meeting is scheduled for 2–4 December. Economists including DBS Bank's Radhika Rao and ICRA's Aditi Nayar expect further tightening, while industry representatives have urged close monitoring of food prices. Those are assessments of a future decision, not an announcement that the RBI has already raised rates in December. The October CPI and food figures are provisional and may be revised.

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