Lebanon food crisis could reach 1.15 million people by mid-2027, UN agencies warn

More than one million people in Lebanon face Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity, according to a November 11 statement from the World Food Programme, the Food and Agriculture Organization and Lebanon's agriculture ministry. Their latest analysis puts the September 2026 to February 2027 figure at 1.05 million, or 21% of the population assessed. That is a defined assessment period and population, not a claim that the same share applies to every estimate of Lebanon's total population.

The agencies project that the figure could rise to 1.15 million, or 24% of those assessed, by mid-2027. Within the wider Crisis-or-worse category, about 52,000 people face Emergency conditions now, with that number projected to reach 97,000. These are IPC Phase 3 and Phase 4 classifications respectively; the statement does not declare a Phase 5 Famine. The later figures are forecasts, not outcomes that have already occurred.

The assessment points to weak employment, depleted savings, debt and high food and fuel costs as pressures on families. In conflict-affected southern districts and areas including Akkar and Baalbek-Hermel, damaged farmland, restricted access and expensive production also weaken rural incomes. The agencies caution that keeping food consumption stable through borrowing, cutting other spending or receiving aid should not be mistaken for household recovery.

The current share is lower than an earlier projection made during the April displacement crisis, but the agencies say this does not establish a lasting improvement. They call for continued food assistance alongside support for farming, livelihoods and productive assets. The immediate concern is both access to food today and the loss of the resources families would need to withstand another shock.