OECD: above-average temperature days have more than doubled and drought risks pose growing threats to economies
The number of days with above-average temperatures worldwide has more than doubled since the early 1980s, rising 126 percent, while declining soil moisture is raising risks for agricultural production and global supply chains, according to the OECD's Climate Action Monitor 2026. The increases have been particularly pronounced in Latin America and the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa, where the number of such days has more than tripled.
About half of the population in OECD countries is exposed to hot days, defined as temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius, each year. Between 2021 and 2025, populations in member countries experienced 35 percent more heat-stress days than during the 1981-2010 climate baseline, equivalent to an additional 17 days a year on average. These events affect livelihoods, ecosystems and economic activity, with adverse health impacts, loss of life, displacement and disruptions to transport, energy, water and agricultural systems.
Crops, power and shipping at risk
Cropland soil moisture across member and partner countries was 2.6 percent lower on average in 2021-2025 than in 1981-2010, pointing to growing risks to agricultural water availability, with potential consequences for food security and global supply chains as major producers and exporters are affected. Drought can also disrupt energy production: low river flows and high water temperatures can constrain nuclear power generation, while reduced water availability can affect hydropower output. Low river levels can restrict inland navigation and major shipping routes, increasing transport costs and disrupting trade. With drought severity projected to increase by 2100, the report says strengthening adaptation can limit economic disruption: companies are already diversifying transport options and strengthening supply chains, while heat action plans are being developed to protect human health.