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Russia

Russia reports 1 percent annual GDP growth in third quarter, slower than the second

2026-11-15

Philadelphia refinery and skyline, illustrative of industry, not Russian GDP output.

Russia's economy grew by 1 percent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the preliminary estimate released by Rosstat on 13 November. Growth slowed from 1.3 percent in the second quarter, but exceeded the Economy Ministry's earlier third-quarter estimate of 0.6 percent.

The statistics service put the physical-volume index of gross domestic product at 101.0 percent relative to the third quarter of 2025. An index of 101 means a 1 percent increase, not a 101 percent growth rate. The comparison is year on year; it is not a seasonally adjusted change from the immediately preceding quarter.

Rosstat's reported sequence shows a 0.2 percent annual contraction in the first quarter, followed by 1.3 percent growth in the second and 1 percent in the third. That pattern describes a weak start followed by positive but uneven annual growth. It does not establish the outcome for the final quarter of the year.

After the third-quarter release, the Economic Development Ministry raised its estimate of growth over the first nine months to 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent. A nine-month cumulative estimate and an individual quarter's annual growth rate cover different periods, so they should not be treated as competing readings of the same figure.

The ministry's full-year forecast cited with the release is 0.6 percent growth in 2026. That remains a forecast, while the third-quarter number is preliminary measured output. Subsequent statistical revisions and the final quarter's performance can change the full-year picture.

The distinction matters when judging the economy: beating an earlier estimate is not the same as accelerating from the previous quarter. The new release is stronger than the ministry's earlier expectation for July-September, but slower than the annual growth recorded in April-June.

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