US, Chinese and Russian leaders push toward a three-way meeting next week that smaller nations fear could become a new Yalta

The leaders of the United States, China and Russia could sit down together next week for the first such three-way meeting of the world's most powerful heads of state, with global flashpoints from the wars in Ukraine and Iran to nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence on the table. Down-to-the-wire negotiations have not yet produced an agreed agenda or format, according to two people familiar with the planning, but a meeting is expected in Shenzhen, where all three leaders will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

Even if the leaders meet, the chances of a major bargain are considered slim. Smaller governments outside the room, including Ukraine and Taiwan, fear decisions affecting them could be made without their involvement. For Russian nationalists, merely holding the meeting would restore the image of Moscow as a superpower alongside Washington and Beijing.

The three leaders arrive with very different aims. Russia's president sees a chance to secure an end to the war in Ukraine on his terms. The American president, bruised by his party's heavy midterm election losses, sees a moment for the history books, possibly including movement toward a three-way nuclear arms control agreement. For China's president, however, the gathering is unpredictable and full of risks: the American leader's improvisational style clashes with his own scripted approach to high-profile events, and China, with far fewer nuclear weapons than the other two, considers itself a nuclear underdog and resists arms control talks framed that way.

Edgard Kagan, a former senior White House official for East Asia under the previous administration and now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, said arms control discussions with the United States, let alone with the United States and Russia together, are 'something the Chinese hate', because they imply China accepts being treated as a major nuclear power subject to similar restrictions. Russia and the United States each possess more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, while China has around 500, though it is expanding its arsenal rapidly.

Echoes of 1945

The proposed meeting has drawn comparisons, particularly in Russia, with the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union carved out spheres of influence that shaped the postwar order. For Russian nationalists the comparison is welcome: Alexander Dugin, a prominent nationalist ideologue, told state radio this week that the meeting 'shows who is important in the world' and confirms a multipolar order. But from Kyiv to Tokyo the prospect of big powers striking private deals without the countries most affected has caused deep unease. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last month: 'We really don't want this to turn into Yalta 2, 3, 4, with a redistribution of influence.'

China is a reluctant host in other ways too. According to one person briefed on the meeting and a European diplomat, Moscow pushed for the war in Ukraine to be discussed while Beijing resisted putting it on the agenda; an American official said on Friday that the president was not likely to raise Ukraine and that three-way talks were not the right forum for it. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president's spokesman, said suggestions on the agenda were being exchanged and that 'the meeting will certainly be interesting.' A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington said China was 'in communication with relevant parties' and had nothing further to share; Russia's embassy did not respond to requests for comment. A senior administration official said no agreement on nuclear issues was expected, but added that 'it is time for China to step up' and discuss the topic.

Regional nerves ahead of the summit

Japan, a close American ally excluded from the table, has relayed its concerns to Washington, according to government sources in Tokyo, with some officials fearing the gathering could become a 'Yalta moment' that rearranges the regional order over the heads of allies. Meanwhile Jo Yong Won, a top aide to North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, flew to Russia on Saturday leading a party and government delegation, days before the expected three-way meeting, highlighting the diplomatic manoeuvring under way around the summit. The meeting, if it happens, would be the latest in a series of high-profile diplomatic spectacles by the American president over nearly six years in office; none of the previous ones produced a breakthrough.

The symbolism also creates a problem for China: it was not invited to the 1945 conference and now presents itself as a defender of smaller countries. Beijing and Moscow have drawn closer through energy trade and military know-how, yet disagree over whether Ukraine belongs on this meeting's agenda. The US president, facing a Democratic-controlled Congress next year, could seek an overseas political gain through arms talks or help ending the Iran war. Former senior State Department official Kurt Tong said the trip offered him a chance to reassert leadership and demonstrate statesmanship on an international stage.