Trump signals caution on new Iran strikes while stepping back from talks
In exchanges with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts since Election Day, President Donald Trump has managed to back away from carrying out additional strikes on Iran while also backing away from talks with the Islamic Republic's negotiators on ending the eight-month-old conflict. The shifting signals have left the Middle East uncertain about what comes next in a war that America's allies were not consulted about before it started, even as they struggle with its economic fallout.
On the day after the midterm elections, Trump acknowledged that the war and the global economic tumult it caused were partly to blame for the Republicans' heavy losses, while maintaining it was the right thing to do. At the start of this week he met Qatar's prime minister at the White House and told reporters afterward that it was highly unlikely he would need to order new major strikes, declaring the war, in his words, militarily effectively over. But by Thursday he was again questioning whether he needed to rush to find an endgame, declaring that the United States no longer needs a deal with Tehran.
Talks halted, but strikes also held off
Trump directed Vice President JD Vance, his chief negotiator in earlier peace talks, to shift his complete and total attention to the administration's domestic anti-fraud campaign. Vance had been weighing a possible re-engagement with senior Iranian negotiators, and Trump's social media post came the morning after news reports that the vice president was thinking about resuming talks; a person familiar with the matter said Trump, who was aware of Vance's deliberations, believed the Iranians were not acting in good faith. By the weekend, people familiar with internal discussions said Trump had told advisers he may hold off on further attacks barring new provocations.
Even so, Trump warned Iran that the US military is, in his words, locked and loaded, and said it is watching Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to Iran's nuclear program, for signs of activity. If something does not work out, he would not hesitate to act, he told a conservative radio broadcaster on Thursday. Trump is also increasingly confident he can credibly declare that he has achieved his military objectives in the war.
Qatar keeps mediating as diplomats wait
Qatar, the chief mediator, continues trying to negotiate an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage for oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf to global markets, while leaving open options for further US-Iran discussions. Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process said those efforts are now clouded by uncertainty: the situation had appeared on the right track after Qatar's prime minister met Trump, but Thursday's post created a sense of limbo. One diplomat described the peace push as in a holding pattern pending clarification of Trump's intentions, saying it was unclear whether he was abandoning a negotiated agreement or merely posturing after the midterms that cost his party control of Congress. The diplomats spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of the talks. One also questioned why Vance, who had been skeptical about starting the war but ultimately supported it, appeared to be sidelined.
The president's position is expected to loom large during his visit next week to the Philippines and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, where he will hold an unprecedented three-way summit with China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Trump is expected to discuss Iran and the three powers' nuclear stockpiles with both leaders. Democratic Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey accused Trump of acting, in his words, like an arsonist who has set ablaze US foreign policy and now just wants to walk away.
Economic pressure over escalation
The White House declined to comment directly on Trump's post-election rhetoric, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a Friday evening speech that the economic pain being inflicted on the Iranian government is so great that there is no need for military action because it has already been weakened so much. Earlier in the week Rubio stressed the United States is not opposed to mediators continuing their efforts, saying that if there is a deal to be done the president will be the first in favor of it, but it will not be, in his words, a stupid or bad deal.
Iran remains unwilling to negotiate over its nuclear program until the United States agrees to several core conditions it has demanded as part of any ceasefire agreement, and those differences remain the thorniest issue, one Trump insists must be resolved as part of any deal ending the war. Iran's deputy UN ambassador, Gholamhossein Darzi, told the Security Council on Friday that Iran has never closed the door to diplomacy, but warned that if the United States or Israel returns to bombing, his country would offer an immediate and decisive response. Meanwhile the strait remains treacherous: the United Nations says October saw the highest number of incidents against commercial ships in the contested waters since February, though oil shipments have recovered to near prewar levels, and Trump believes he could leave it to Gulf countries to negotiate with Iran over governing the waterway.
Michael Singh, a Middle East specialist at a Washington research institute who worked in former president George W. Bush's White House, said he expects the status quo to persist for some time: a stalemate over the strait alongside the months-long US naval blockade that is curbing the flow of Iranian crude to global markets. Squeezing Iran economically is a far more attractive option for Trump than military escalation or concessions to Tehran, he said, and the president could always reverse course on Vance engaging the Iranians if they show readiness to negotiate seriously. The sensible path, in his words, is to be patient, keep the pressure on, let mediators do their work, and engage senior officials only when the time is right.